Many major climate experts are now saying that we are beginning a "mini ice-age" that may last 20-30 years, reports the Daily Mail. They are predicting cooler than normal temperatures for both winter and summer for the next few years.
I do not understand how these same people can continue to claim that man is causing catastrophic global warming. It boggles the mind. The horrible man-made gases and other bad outputs have not been reduced. How do they reconcile a mini ice-age?
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Saturday, January 9, 2010
"I'm all blue with gravy spots. And I'm proud of it."
More funny quotes here. Warning, there are many potty words in use. So don't click if you are upset by foul language.
The death penalty
I've mentioned before that government should not have the right to execute citizens or the right of imminent domain. A commenter (yes, someone actually read some posts and posted a comment) asked me to flesh out my thoughts on the death penalty in particular.
I have always thought for myself. As early as 5 or 6 people were saying about me, "that kid marches to the beat of his own drummer." I try not to revel in it--to be contrarian for the sake of the argument. But I feel little to no compulsion to follow along with the crowd or with a leader.
I try to be internally consistent in my values, views, and opinions. This isn't a complete list, but these are some of my core guiding beliefs and values:
My natural instincts are an eye-for-an-eye, just like everyone else. And if I believed that a human justice system could perfectly determine the facts of every situation, then I might support executing sufficiently guilty criminals. I read about the atrocities of the Germans in WWII, for instance, and I want to execute those responsible. But I fundamentally distrust our ability to figure out who really was responsible, even for those crimes.
The case of Todd Willingham, told here in the New Yorker, demonstrates those three failings in the execution of an innocent man. I allow and enable this system of government, and I feel the guilt of this murder that we committed. This should not be.
I have always thought for myself. As early as 5 or 6 people were saying about me, "that kid marches to the beat of his own drummer." I try not to revel in it--to be contrarian for the sake of the argument. But I feel little to no compulsion to follow along with the crowd or with a leader.
I try to be internally consistent in my values, views, and opinions. This isn't a complete list, but these are some of my core guiding beliefs and values:
- I believe that God exists, created all of this, and still acts in the world today.
- I value life. I value human life over animal and plant life, but I believe that all life is valuable.
- I believe that people are prone to making all sorts of little mistakes, like overestimating their memories and underestimating the part that luck plays in any given situation.
- I believe that power corrupts--so I distrust power systems.
- Communication is difficult, up to the point of being virtually impossible.
- Control is an illusion--even self control. There are too many factors influencing every decision/event to say that anyone exercises control.
- People are communal creatures. We define ourselves in terms of our community. Reacting to other people is a primary influence ("systems theory", in psychological terms) on our actions and our own self-perception.
My natural instincts are an eye-for-an-eye, just like everyone else. And if I believed that a human justice system could perfectly determine the facts of every situation, then I might support executing sufficiently guilty criminals. I read about the atrocities of the Germans in WWII, for instance, and I want to execute those responsible. But I fundamentally distrust our ability to figure out who really was responsible, even for those crimes.
The case of Todd Willingham, told here in the New Yorker, demonstrates those three failings in the execution of an innocent man. I allow and enable this system of government, and I feel the guilt of this murder that we committed. This should not be.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Yet another hiring problem theory
The guys on the Freakonomics blog point to a study that shows that medical students who do their med school entrance exams on rainy days score 10% lower than students who interview on sunny days. Maybe I need to add weather questions to the hiring surveys.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Avatar review and SF general thoughts
I saw Avatar on IMAX 3D about a week ago. Stunning, beautiful, amazing. The threshold between live action and CGI was gone. The 3D effects were beautiful and not showy for their own sake.
All of that said, I have some thoughts and reactions that seem critical. I'll hide my spoilers behind the 'More' link, below. But all of these criticisms should be viewed more as open-ended analysis than as a critique of Cameron's decisions. Clearly Cameron is a genius and his vision is tremendous. I'm not suggesting changing the movie, exactly.
Avatar is what I would describe as soft science fiction. That's not a term you hear often, and it deserves a definition. It's the opposite of hard sci fi. Hard sci fi worries about the details of how this _whatever_ would really actually work/happen/unfold/etc. Hard sci fi limits itself to events and technologies that it can reasonably explain. Hard sci fi insists that a planetary government must be big, bureaucratic, and inefficient--because in reality it must be that way.
Soft sci fi takes more liberties with these details. Soft sci fi makes the conscious decision to bend its imaginary reality some to suit the needs of the story. Idealized, as opposed to realistic.
Soft sci fi stories appeal to the heart, where hard sci fi appeals to the mind. Soft sci fi translates well to the screen, precisely because of all of those details that are being omitted. Soft sci fi is commercially viable. Hard sci fi is a niche.
My own natural impulse is to write hard sci fi. I prefer reading hard sci fi, when I can find it. But I understand that I will need to strip out some of my details and focus on the human story if I am going to ever find commercial success.
I've said that because much of my analysis of Avatar actually comes in the form of pointing out the places where Cameron went soft on the sci fi, and how it would look it the sci fi were hardened. I hope that makes sense.
A few wide-angle thoughts before we get in to the details.
See the movie in IMAX 3D. This is the biggest big-screen movie since Jurassic Park, and it can only be truly appreciated big and loud.
But the 3D experience still gave me a headache. Troy (my brother-in-law) reported the same thing. I have great eyesight, Troy wears glasses. So that isn't it. With all of the money spent on this new advanced 3D stuff, the headache is a big problem. If I could somehow short stocks for the long-term, I would short all of the TV makers were are betting big on 3D TVs. I won't be buying one anytime soon. The headache stigma will be very hard to overcome.
If you are really interested in the writing process then you might be interested in this detailed analysis of the first writing treatment, called 'Project 880'. This article is chock full of spoilers, and seriously shouldn't be read until you've seen the movie. I'll try not to repeat any of Devin's Avatar analysis here.
So with that teaser, if you've seen the movie then click to find out what all Cameron got wrong. :-)
All of that said, I have some thoughts and reactions that seem critical. I'll hide my spoilers behind the 'More' link, below. But all of these criticisms should be viewed more as open-ended analysis than as a critique of Cameron's decisions. Clearly Cameron is a genius and his vision is tremendous. I'm not suggesting changing the movie, exactly.
Avatar is what I would describe as soft science fiction. That's not a term you hear often, and it deserves a definition. It's the opposite of hard sci fi. Hard sci fi worries about the details of how this _whatever_ would really actually work/happen/unfold/etc. Hard sci fi limits itself to events and technologies that it can reasonably explain. Hard sci fi insists that a planetary government must be big, bureaucratic, and inefficient--because in reality it must be that way.
Soft sci fi takes more liberties with these details. Soft sci fi makes the conscious decision to bend its imaginary reality some to suit the needs of the story. Idealized, as opposed to realistic.
Soft sci fi stories appeal to the heart, where hard sci fi appeals to the mind. Soft sci fi translates well to the screen, precisely because of all of those details that are being omitted. Soft sci fi is commercially viable. Hard sci fi is a niche.
My own natural impulse is to write hard sci fi. I prefer reading hard sci fi, when I can find it. But I understand that I will need to strip out some of my details and focus on the human story if I am going to ever find commercial success.
I've said that because much of my analysis of Avatar actually comes in the form of pointing out the places where Cameron went soft on the sci fi, and how it would look it the sci fi were hardened. I hope that makes sense.
A few wide-angle thoughts before we get in to the details.
See the movie in IMAX 3D. This is the biggest big-screen movie since Jurassic Park, and it can only be truly appreciated big and loud.
But the 3D experience still gave me a headache. Troy (my brother-in-law) reported the same thing. I have great eyesight, Troy wears glasses. So that isn't it. With all of the money spent on this new advanced 3D stuff, the headache is a big problem. If I could somehow short stocks for the long-term, I would short all of the TV makers were are betting big on 3D TVs. I won't be buying one anytime soon. The headache stigma will be very hard to overcome.
If you are really interested in the writing process then you might be interested in this detailed analysis of the first writing treatment, called 'Project 880'. This article is chock full of spoilers, and seriously shouldn't be read until you've seen the movie. I'll try not to repeat any of Devin's Avatar analysis here.
So with that teaser, if you've seen the movie then click to find out what all Cameron got wrong. :-)
Source material for good fiction
I regularly read biographical and historical accounts. I'm looking for source material about situations and personalities that I can use in my fiction. I just finished a long article that was better than any history book I've ever read.
Lee Sandlin wrote this article describing the causes, experiences, and attitudes around World War II. I think Lee is male, though I'm not entirely sure. Whatever. He or she has clearly done a great deal of research and critical thinking. I think I better understand the realities of total war now; the berserker rage and the fey resignation.
Beautiful and powerful. If you are a writer of fiction then you should read it. Or if you are interested in WWII.
Lee Sandlin wrote this article describing the causes, experiences, and attitudes around World War II. I think Lee is male, though I'm not entirely sure. Whatever. He or she has clearly done a great deal of research and critical thinking. I think I better understand the realities of total war now; the berserker rage and the fey resignation.
Beautiful and powerful. If you are a writer of fiction then you should read it. Or if you are interested in WWII.
Google Maps feature idea: Service Areas
I want to be able to type this in to Google and get a pretty map and listing:
Each company should be able to define multiple types of service areas. For instance, they could have a "free" area and a "$5 service charge" service area. Or they could have a "same day" service area and a "next day" service area. Or whatever they want.
Obviously this would apply to more than just furniture. Pizza, chicken, burritos, flowers, plumbers, A/C services, tow trucks, hail repair, insurance, etc. All of these types of companies, and a whole lot more that I'm not thinking of right now, would love to be able to target customers with specific searches like this. Some companies that have potentially overlapping service areas, like insurance agents, could even use this to define boundaries for each agency.
This seems pretty easy to accomplish. We just need to agree on a file spec and let everyone publish their service area data--and then Google has to update their search engine to read the data. I think that the data should be in a simple XML file stored on the service provider's webserver. I would call it "service_areas.xml". That file should contain these minimum data types, but could later expand to contain a whole lot more (like a full menu or service times, etc.):
Google could whip up a Google Map application that would let you fill in some blanks and put some pins on the map, and then press a button to generate an XML file that you could use. Then you would just copy that file into the root directory of your website and the magic would happen.
Obviously it doesn't have to be XML, that's just the format that I am most familiar with that would suit this purpose. Yahoo, Microsoft, and other map sites can use the data, too, I guess. But I only use Google Maps, so I really don't care much about the others.
Somebody get Google moving on this, please. Thanks.
"furniture stores that deliver to _my address_" (where _my address_ is actually my address)I want Google to come back with a list of stores and a link to see those stores plotted on a map. Obviously Google can't do this on their own, but they can define the standards and help companies get their data up on their websites.
Each company should be able to define multiple types of service areas. For instance, they could have a "free" area and a "$5 service charge" service area. Or they could have a "same day" service area and a "next day" service area. Or whatever they want.
Obviously this would apply to more than just furniture. Pizza, chicken, burritos, flowers, plumbers, A/C services, tow trucks, hail repair, insurance, etc. All of these types of companies, and a whole lot more that I'm not thinking of right now, would love to be able to target customers with specific searches like this. Some companies that have potentially overlapping service areas, like insurance agents, could even use this to define boundaries for each agency.
This seems pretty easy to accomplish. We just need to agree on a file spec and let everyone publish their service area data--and then Google has to update their search engine to read the data. I think that the data should be in a simple XML file stored on the service provider's webserver. I would call it "service_areas.xml". That file should contain these minimum data types, but could later expand to contain a whole lot more (like a full menu or service times, etc.):
- Services: A keyword list of the types of services that they provide.
- Service Area #1-N: Each service area would have a name and a few other attributes:
- Cost
- Time
- Coordinates: A list of Latitude & Longitude pairs that define the boundaries of the service area.
Google could whip up a Google Map application that would let you fill in some blanks and put some pins on the map, and then press a button to generate an XML file that you could use. Then you would just copy that file into the root directory of your website and the magic would happen.
Obviously it doesn't have to be XML, that's just the format that I am most familiar with that would suit this purpose. Yahoo, Microsoft, and other map sites can use the data, too, I guess. But I only use Google Maps, so I really don't care much about the others.
Somebody get Google moving on this, please. Thanks.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
My next phone
I got a G1 on the day it launched. I loved my G1, right up until I got laid off and had to pay for that data plan myself. I turned that off immediately, and found out the phone won't even boot up without a data plan. I found an old Nokia in my kids' toy box--so now I'm rocking it old school.
I don't like Apple's pricey hardware and superior attitude. And I dislike AT&T. So I'm staying away from the iPhone, even though many of my friends and family love theirs.
As soon as my writing income will support it I'll be getting myself a new Google Nexus One phone. Sweet!
I don't like Apple's pricey hardware and superior attitude. And I dislike AT&T. So I'm staying away from the iPhone, even though many of my friends and family love theirs.
As soon as my writing income will support it I'll be getting myself a new Google Nexus One phone. Sweet!
Yet another Chase annoyance
Yesterday the nice guy at Chase unlocked my account. He did that by erasing the security q&a's on my account. Yesterday I tried and tried to log in, but every time I got an error that the system was unavailable after I entered my new security answers.
I thought about it last night and realized that I was using an ampersand ("&") in one of my answers. That shouldn't be a problem, but I've been doing software long enough to know that I should try removing that. So this morning I tried again and used the ampersand, and got the same error again. I immediately tried again and replaced the ampersand with "and" spelled out (even though the answer is now actually misspelled.) It worked.
So their website hasn't been developed to standards, and they aren't properly escaping the security answers. That probably means that their security answers can be hacked--just a guess.
I did write down my security answers in my folder, and I noted the misspelling. (sigh)
I thought about it last night and realized that I was using an ampersand ("&") in one of my answers. That shouldn't be a problem, but I've been doing software long enough to know that I should try removing that. So this morning I tried again and used the ampersand, and got the same error again. I immediately tried again and replaced the ampersand with "and" spelled out (even though the answer is now actually misspelled.) It worked.
So their website hasn't been developed to standards, and they aren't properly escaping the security answers. That probably means that their security answers can be hacked--just a guess.
I did write down my security answers in my folder, and I noted the misspelling. (sigh)
Monday, January 4, 2010
Classic good news / bad news
Apparently there has been one reputable organization fighting for the death penalty in America. I've stated my opposition. So I first viewed this news as unequivocal good news. That organization, the American Law Institute, has formally dropped its advocacy of capital punishment.
Yeah!
Read a little deeper, though, and the reason for this change is quite disturbing. The ALI is made up of about 4,000 judges, lawyers and law professors. Their decision is due to their collective opinion that the criminal justice system is so broken that it can no longer be trusted to decide matters of life and death.
Let that sink in for a second. 4,000 judges, lawyers, and law professors who used to be the sole advocate of the death penalty in America now believe that the criminal justice system is too broken to entrust with that power.
That's bad.
The New York Times has the full story.
I expect this to signal the beginning of the end of the death penalty in America. I am glad for that. And I am glad that those in power have the honesty to say that the system is broken and work to remove this power before it is more grievously abused. But I wish that the legal system were not that broken.
Yeah!
Read a little deeper, though, and the reason for this change is quite disturbing. The ALI is made up of about 4,000 judges, lawyers and law professors. Their decision is due to their collective opinion that the criminal justice system is so broken that it can no longer be trusted to decide matters of life and death.
Let that sink in for a second. 4,000 judges, lawyers, and law professors who used to be the sole advocate of the death penalty in America now believe that the criminal justice system is too broken to entrust with that power.
That's bad.
The New York Times has the full story.
I expect this to signal the beginning of the end of the death penalty in America. I am glad for that. And I am glad that those in power have the honesty to say that the system is broken and work to remove this power before it is more grievously abused. But I wish that the legal system were not that broken.
First review of the new 2010 Tesla S
Winding Road has the scoop. This is a car that I'm in lust with, so I've been watching pretty closely. It seems that they have finally found a workable solution for their transmission reliability problems. Glorious! I'm ready to buy. Anyone want to loan me $100k?
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Move your money!
This idea is so brilliant and obvious, that I am ashamed that I didn't think of it. http://moveyourmoney.info/!
You money is probably in one of the too-big-to-fail banks that caused this mess with their CDOs and increased leverage. Take it out of there and put it in a bank that acted responsibly. They might be too big to fail, but they don't have to stay too big.
The MoveYourMoney website has a tool to help you find a stable community bank near you.
You might also look at Kasasa (pronounced with three short a's, "kah-sah-sah".) Kasasa is run by the folks over at FirstROI / BancVue, who are in the business of helping community banks get onto the web and offer the same sort of web-based services that the big banks offer. Kasasa is a give-back-to-the-community effort, helping these local community banks find innovative ways to engage their communities to make positive social impacts.
This is the most important New Year's resolution you can make. Make a difference. Move your money!
You money is probably in one of the too-big-to-fail banks that caused this mess with their CDOs and increased leverage. Take it out of there and put it in a bank that acted responsibly. They might be too big to fail, but they don't have to stay too big.
The MoveYourMoney website has a tool to help you find a stable community bank near you.
You might also look at Kasasa (pronounced with three short a's, "kah-sah-sah".) Kasasa is run by the folks over at FirstROI / BancVue, who are in the business of helping community banks get onto the web and offer the same sort of web-based services that the big banks offer. Kasasa is a give-back-to-the-community effort, helping these local community banks find innovative ways to engage their communities to make positive social impacts.
This is the most important New Year's resolution you can make. Make a difference. Move your money!
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